A closer look at the “Boom”.

There has been much news recently concerning employment and jobs in Halifax..

Teachers laid off.

Shortage of Skilled Labour.

Ship Building Contract.

Ship Building Workers laid off.

Reduction in services and civil servant layoffs.

Average age of Nurses rising, retirement ages pushed upward.

The list goes on, and more is added to it every day. What exactly is happening, and why? What will it mean going forward? I’ll take a crack at it..

Feds:

Actions occur on a national level – be it civil servant or large corporation layoffs. Those actions have lasting repercussions here – The local economy simmers down. The flow of money into provincial and municipal coffers slows. That leads to provincial government layoffs, local business suffers – The potential for real, long-term difficulty exists.

It’s hard to say if the federal Conservative government is responding logically to the economic crises of a few years back while trying to re-balance the budget; or if they are merely following their well-known preference for small government and out-sourced (privatized) services. Probably both.

Whatever the reasons, the results are the same, jobs are being shed. One recent example being Fisheries layoffs, with nothing apparently off-limits as you can see here.

Nova Scotia Gov’t:

Provincially, the NDP have made some interesting choices lately. Loaning Irving $304 Million Dollars, but not saying why. Then Irving lays off 44 workers. Certainly it’s been shown that the work on the shipbuilding contract isn’t going to start immediately, but those two events combined certainly haven’t gone over well with Nova Scotia taxpayers. Hopefully it doesn’t foreshadow future disappointment.

Halifax:

Here in Halifax, we have the news that the Halifax regional school board is cutting 154 teachers, due to provincial and municipal funding cuts.

With increasing numbers of students requiring individual program plans and curriculum that continues to evolve – among other things – our education system needs more resources and teachers, not less.

I think it’s worth noting that these type of actions don’t happen in a vacuum. Just as the actions the federal government takes affect us from the top down; now we have actions that will rise from education cuts to potentially hurt us in the long term.

The means to educate and prepare young people for an increasingly competitive workplace is compromised.

The stories coming out of Capital Health aren’t encouraging either. No funds to hire additional nurses, while their average ages increase. An interesting glimpse here at overtime costs.

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So the makeup of the local job market is in flux. Government funded jobs (from all levels) are on the decline.

On the other hand demographics show there are demands in other areas, with the retirement of boomers. The 2011 census shows Nova Scotia is the “oldest” province. More on that  here.

There are simply not enough young workers in skilled trades to replace those who are close to retirement.

The provincial government is negotiating with federal counterparts to increase the number of skilled immigrants they can allow directly. The feds want N.S. to modify it’s immigration programs to better reflect the skilled-labour and professional needs; while they are revising national programs and policies. The bottom line, is that NS won’t be able to increase the number of immigrants which it needs to fill holes in the labour market in the short term.

Looking at Temporary Foreign Workers:

The TFW program doesn’t afford it’s workers the same rights Canadian workers enjoy. They often fill jobs that many citizens won’t, due to low wages or due to their seasonal nature. A statistic worth taking note of: Temporary Foreign Workers account for 29% of all full time positions created in Canada over the past four years.

This is worth watching.

In both the U.S. and Canada, actions have been taken recently in the name of fiscal restraint and managing the fragile economy in recovery.

Problem is, many of those actions seem to have come down at the expense of the very workers we need. Back to work legislation seems to be an automated response by governments, and many jurisdictions (mainly in the U.S. to this point, mind you) have been passing legislation that weakens unionized workers.

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After looking at these various points, a conclusion isn’t so easy to draw. Adding it all up however, I am not convinced that we are going to experience a major boom here in Halifax, or in Nova Scotia overall. We’re not going to look like Alberta  – or St. John’s for that matter – anytime soon.

I feel skilled trades might be the only sector of employment that will remain healthy in the short to mid term. Yet I also feel that we’ll be lucky if wages and benefits for those working in trades keep pace with inflation. If they do, it may be because the construction demands in Halifax lead to higher wages being paid to attract or keep workers here.

..but will that be the case if demand is met with temporary foreign workers who aren’t afforded the same levels of pay or the same rights as Canadian citizens? No mention of what’s on the horizon for citizen and worker rights – that would just be depressing.

If your son or daughter isn’t training to be a doctor or a lawyer – willing to take the “hometown discount” (after paying the highest tuition in the country) I might be nudging them towards a skilled trade that is experiencing a shortage.

Might be the best way to make a living here in the not-too-distant future.