Ships Start Here (eventually).

It’s been six months, since the awarding of the shipbuilding contract to Halifax, on October 19th 2011.

Sure, “Ships Start Here” – but just not in a big way any time soon. Most reports show the first ships under construction will see work start in 2013.

For the jobs that are expected out of this, info on the Ships Start Here website shows that we aren’t supposed to see the peak of 11,500 realized – a tenfold increase over current staff levels – until 2020. There are in fact only modest increases until 2019. As of January, there were already 7,000 job applications received at the shipyard. That is for about 2,800 jobs the shipyard projects to create in 2012.

I can’t imagine Irving is complaining, being able to cherry-pick the best qualified out of such a large pool of applicants.

As for longer term thinking, maybe parents can nudge a wayward child or two (who might not seem so interested in post-secondary education) into NSCC’s welding program with the promise of working on “cool” warships.

If that’s the strategy however, I’d look just as closely at programs offering things such as Construction Management, Carpentry, and Electrical if trying to take advantage of career opportunities in Halifax.

Why consider trades? Well who are the main employers are in Halifax? Government agencies/Crown Corporations, Educational institutions, and Health Care. Now what state are they in?

My pessimistic side has allowed me to wonder a couple of times – both before and after Halifax was announced as winning the bid – if it’s awarding might merely serve to keep the town afloat. In the face of the decimation of jobs in other fields that occupy larger portions of our workforce than building fancy boats – it’s a fair consideration.

Announcements of cuts are coming daily it seems, since the recent federal and provincial budgets were handed down.

Outside of that, factor in the demographics of boomers retiring, and a shortage of skilled workers to replace them, and there’s a case for working in the building trades. They might be the only jobs to be had in couple years. Blue collar jobs, building housing for blue collar people moving to town to .. fill blue collar jobs.

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Where does this leave Halifax right now?

There are plenty of building projects – residential and commercial – taking place in Halifax these days. Some of the projects that developers are pushing through are no doubt related to or at least encouraged by the shipbuilding contract; whereas others had been in the planning stages for years before the announcement.

Canadian Home Mortgage Corporation (or CMHC) data is very useful for getting an idea of what kind of construction is taking place, at least as far as the residential sector is concerned. The bottom line is that there are more residential projects in progress here – about 20% higher than average. A helpful analysis of that data was reported in the Chronicle Herald in late February.

It’s harder to find data on Commercial and Industrial projects and starts, as there isn’t a government agency such as CMHC reporting on them. In fact, if you ask CMHC about it – which I had an opportunity to do recently – they will point you in the direction of CBRE – only the world’s largest commercial real estate firm.. They do have an office in Halifax. Their most recent report, released in late November 2011 details transactions and starts in the Halifax area, and also projects “sustainable” growth.

Having said all that, if you travel around HRM to any extent, perhaps you’ve noticed the numerous projects under way in the Burnside Industrial Park, and in Bayers Lake. The data only supports what one can see about town.

Maybe if City Hall can stop pissing off developers and residents alike with it’s waffling on “HRM by Design”, even more exciting development can be encouraged downtown, to help increase density, contain sprawl – and give more people a reason to want to be on the peninsula. I spoke about this and more, in my first ramble on development in Halifax here.

Since that last post, gasoline has risen over 20 cents a litre. Glad I’m not commuting from Mount Uniacke anymore. Allan Street with my 30 mpg average (realized, not advertised) runabout is still doing me just fine.

Patrick Leroy of United Gulf Developments may be on to something here. Mixed, affordable housing with integrated commercial space downtown, where people can be encouraged to leave their cars parked as often as not.

So far, the points raised this time around have taken the local economy into consideration, as well as the effects of fiscal constraint on the provincial and federal levels. Nothing much as changed in the international economy either – The U.S. is still struggling, as is the E.U.

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Six months after the announcement, I’m not as convinced that we are about to realize some “upward spiral” or catalyst, but maybe I’ll settle for the typical Halifax economy, insulated from the highest of highs,and from the lowest of lows as the world moves on around us.

For now, I wont lament the fact I haven’t quite landed in either journalism or education.

I probably could use a writing course or two, however.

Thanks for reading.